All this is perhaps too complicated to explain to Daily Telegraph readers. In theory at least this guarantees that the survey is based on a more perfect microcosm of the electorate than is possible under quota sampling. The fact that they do so well in these conditions reflects very favourably on the pollsters. In October they switched from quota sampling to random sampling and they doubled the number of inter- views in their monthly poll to over 2,000. Chronicle for twenty-two years before being taken 'up by the Daily Telegraph. Their margin of error in predicting election results has been of the same order of magnitude as their rivals. It is thus possible to go some way to isolate what Dr. Mark Abrams, the best known of private poll- sters, has called 'the target voter,' and, from a less manipulative standpoint, to make progress in analysing the basic nature of the democratic process. The Spectator, 22 Old Queen Street, London, SW1H 9HP, All articles and content Copyright © 2013 The Spectator (1828) Ltd | All rights reserved. Error is equally likely to creep in through clumsily worded questions, through incompetent or biased interviewers, or through misleading treatment of `don't knows' or refusals. Moreover, even the most perfect of polls, giving an exact picture of what the whole electorate Would say in response to the question 'How will You vote?' Both suffer from the handicap of having to be judged by what is actually printed. The shrewdest party officials know that, when there are no by-elections, opinion polls with all their limitations are more reliable than any other private or public source of information about the electoral mood of the nation. The main value of the polls lies not in their exact forecasts of the divisions of the vote, but in their indications of the trend.

may still be very deceptive. (In the early 1950s shifts in the party lead of as much as 9 per cent were recorded in the two months before the general election.) The 'don't knows' may lean heavily to one side. His record in predicting general election results has been creditable—his final published estimate of the gap between the two leading parties has never been much more than 3 per cent out and has averaged over five elections just about 2 per cent. Detailed national-level Presidential Election Results for 1964. Too much atten- tion is focused on the margin of error of the Pollsters' final election forecasts.

Incumbent Democratic United States President Lyndon B. Johnson defeated Barry Goldwater, the Republican nominee. However, it is important to remember that the size and the construction of the sample are only one element in reliable polling. BILL CLINTON: It's going to further spread cynicism in our system.No, what further spreads the cynicism is the lies. Those who ad- vise the Prime Minister about the date of the dissolution will be very, very heavily influenced by any changes that may occur in the Govern- ment's standing in the polls. In this there is a moral both for those who predict a narrow win for Labour or for the Conservatives next summer (do they know to within 1 per cent how their fellow countrymen will divide their votes?) Lyndon B. Johnson defeated Republican Barry Goldwater in one of the largest landslides in U.S. history. United States presidential election of 1964, American presidential election held on November 3, 1964, in which Democratic Pres. In a light- hearted article, Mr. Wedgwood Benn has en- visaged a government debacle through artfully falsified polls luring them to-dissolve when their stock was, in fact, at its lowest. Journalistic and scientific values can conflict. 2012 Presidential Election, Vote by Groups 0b ama NATIONWIDE Men Women White (incl. National Opinion Polls reacted drastically to last summer's discrepancies. Over the next few months, in the absence of by-elections, Dr. Henry Durant of the Gallup Poll and Mr. Peter Hyett of National Opinion Polls provide the principal sounding boards for trends in party support.

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